Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center Editor Team
The international seminar titled New Leadership in U.S. and Japan: Impact in Indo-Pacific and Implications for Taiwan successfully concluded on November 27, 2024. The seminar was organized by the Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research and supported by the National Association of Manufacturers of the Republic of China (ROC).
The seminar was honored to invite Deputy Director-General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Asia-Pacific Department, Wong Yung-Hui, and Chen Po-Chia, a supervisor of the National Association of Industry of the Republic of China, to deliver opening speeches. Following the opening, Dr. Chen-Dong Tso (Professor in the Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University), Dr. Szu-Shen Ho (Distinguished Professor in the Department of Japanese Language and Culture, Fu Jen Catholic University), Kristy Tsun-Tzu Hsu (Director of the Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center, CIER), Dr. Yujen Kuo (Vice President of Institute for National Policy Research) and Joyce Guo (Research Analyst of the Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center, CIER) gave presentations on the new US and Japan governments’ Indo-Pacific strategies. The event was conducted online and streamed on YouTube, allowing the public to access the content at their convenience and helping promote greater understanding of the political shifts in the US and Japan, and their implications for the Indo-Pacific region and Taiwan.
Dr. Chen-Dong Tso (Professor in the Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University) presented on the topic Prospect for a New Indo-Pacific Strategy and Agenda Under the Next U.S. Adminstration. The Trump administration's second term in office was expected to focus on transactional diplomacy, utilizing personnel appointments to drive its China policy and counter China's rise while deepening alliances. Marco Rubio, likely to be nominated as Secretary of State, and Mike Waltz, a potential National Security Advisor, are seen as key figures in the new government. Rubio is known for defending human rights, supporting Taiwan’s sovereignty, and limiting Chinese corporate investments, while Waltz emphasizes accelerating arms sales to Taiwan and enhancing cooperation with Indo-Pacific allies.
Trump’s Indo-Pacific policy was expected to continue the approach of his first term, working through multilateral frameworks like QUAD with Japan, Australia, and India, and gradually involving South Korea and Southeast Asian countries to counter China’s economic and military threats. Additionally, the Trump administration was expected to impose stronger restrictions on Chinese land acquisitions and leverage the COVID-19 origin issue to pressure China, further straining bilateral relations. Compared to Biden, Trump placed more emphasis on military alliances and the defense of the First Island Chain, with a possible expansion of AUKUS and QUAD’s influence. His policies may also adopt a more hardline stance on the South China Sea and Taiwan issues. Trump's policies on Taiwan could lead to increased defense and economic cooperation commitments and encourage the reshoring of semiconductor industries, presenting challenges to Taiwan's industrial chain. Waltz supported strengthening US-Taiwan relations and proposed specific measures to counter China's expansion in Cuba and Southeast Asia, demonstrating active support for Taiwan and its allies. However, Trump’s emphasis on military capabilities and defense might bring greater variability in military, economic, and diplomatic relations, deeply affecting US-China relations, the Indo-Pacific landscape, and Taiwan's future.
Dr. Szu-Shen Ho (Distinguished Professor in the Department of Japanese Language and Culture, Fu Jen Catholic University), presented on Japan’s New Administration’s Future Direction of Engagement with the U.S. and Southeast Asia. He suggested that Trump could become a variable in Japan’s political scene, especially concerning Taiwan Strait stability, though he did not foresee Trump posing significant risks to Japan. He also noted internal divisions within the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), posing challenges to the new cabinet led by Shigeru Ishiba, particularly in foreign policy. Shigeru Ishiba’s economic policies are expected to continue Fumio Kishida’s new capitalism ideas, emphasizing the reduction of wealth inequality, but achieving these goals amidst Japan's ongoing deflation remains uncertain. The Bank of Japan's hesitation over interest rate hikes, combined with the economic impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, complicates policy implementation. Japan's diplomatic and economic cooperation with Southeast Asia remains robust, and this will likely intensify in the future.
Kristy Tsun-Tzu Hsu (Director of the Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center, CIER) presented on Prospects for US/Japan-Taiwan Trade Relatinos – Upgrading the New Southbound Policy and China Plus One Strategy. The Trump 2.0 policy will have a profound impact on global trade, economic structures, and supply chains, particularly through the imposition of high tariffs and the removal of China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status. These measures will accelerate the reshaping of supply chains and push foreign investments from China to Southeast and South Asia, further increasing the trade imbalance between the US and these regions. Trump’s focus on trade fairness might make Southeast Asian countries like India, Vietnam, and Thailand focal points of US policy, especially as their trade surpluses with the US increase, and they face expanded trade friction risks with China. In the energy, environment, and technology sectors, Trump’s potential withdrawal from agreements like the Paris Climate Accord and the Inflation Reduction Act would weaken Southeast Asia’s ability to attract foreign investment, possibly pushing more capital toward the US. For Taiwan, Trump’s policies may amplify issues related to Taiwan-US trade surpluses and may lead Taiwanese companies to adjust to global economic changes by exploring opportunities in Southeast Asia’s industrial upgrades, such as smart cities and data centers.
Dr. Yujen Kuo (Vice President of Institute for National Policy Research), presented on Strategic Implications for Taiwan: Assessing the Geopolitical Changes Following the U.S. Election. With Trump’s overwhelming victory in the election, the Republican Party’s control over US political power enhances policy flexibility. Trump views Russia as an important counterbalance to China and advocates for a swift ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war, aiming to weaken Russia’s ties with North Korea while rebuilding relations with Kim Jong-un. In terms of US-China relations, Trump plans to revoke China’s PNTR status, impose high tariffs on steel and automotive industries, and limit China’s economic and international influence. Taiwan, facing the dual challenge of increased defense and economic commitments to the US, must also brace for potential disruptions to its industrial chain security due to Trump’s economic pressure on China.
Finally, Joyce Guo (Research Analyst of the Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center, CIER) presented on “Industrial Cooperation Opportunities for New Southbound Nations under the New U.S. Administration”. The Biden administration’s strategic infrastructure investments, such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and CHIPS & Science Act, amounting to $1.9 trillion, are expected to have significant impacts on the US economy and industrial development. However, under a returning Trump administration, these initiatives might face budget cuts or project cancellations. Trump’s potential reductions in clean energy investments or electric vehicle subsidies could impact US demand for critical minerals from Southeast Asia, allowing China to expand its influence. Taiwan’s companies, such as TSMC, could be affected by the uncertainty surrounding policy decisions, especially regarding semiconductor industry support. Overall, Trump’s policies are likely to maintain a stable framework in semiconductor and infrastructure sectors, but major shifts in clean energy and climate policies could have profound impacts on US-China competition and regional economic dynamics.
The seminar concluded successfully, and the Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center will continue to serve as an important platform for discussions on Southeast Asian issues, facilitating exchanges and understanding within Taiwan’s knowledge community on these crucial topics.
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