Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center Editor Team 2024.11.08
New Leadership in Indonesia and Thailand: Policy Impacts on Taiwan conference organized by the Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER), and supported by the Chinese National Association of Industries, successfully concluded on October 30, 2024. The meeting was honored to invite Assitant Director General Sung Shen-Wu of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Asia-Pacific Department and Director General Kao Keng-Tsuan of the NAIC to deliver opening speeches. Following this, Dr. Ke-Li Teng (Adjunct Assistant Professor at the Institute of Strategic Studies, National Defense University), Dr. Shangmao Chen (Professor, Department of Public Affairs, Fo Guang University), and Sean Lee (Research Analyst of the Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center, CIER) gave presentations on the new leaders and policies in Indonesia and Thailand. During the discussion session, important scholars, experts, and representatives from Taiwanese businesses gathered to discuss and exchange views on the current situation and future of Taiwan-Thailand and Taiwan-Indonesia relations. The meeting was conducted online and streamed live on YouTube (link), offering the public the opportunity to watch and enhance their understanding of industrial issues in Thailand and Indonesia.
【Director Kristy Tzun-Tzu Hsu with the speakers】
The event began with three keynote speeches followed by a comprehensive discussion. First, Dr. Ke-Li Teng (Adjunct Assistant Professor at the Institute of Strategic Studies, National Defense University) presented on the key issues and outlook for Indonesia’s new government after the 2024 election. Indonesia, being a country with diverse religions and ethnicities, emphasizes unity, mutual assistance, shared interests, and consensus-building, which are crucial for its internal social stability. On October 20, 2024, Indonesia’s new president, Prabowo Subianto, took office, and his vice president is Gibran Rakabuming, the son of former president Joko Widodo, indicating that the new government is likely to continue the policies of the Jokowi administration. Key priorities for the new government include infrastructure, industrial development, and energy and food independence, particularly focusing on infrastructure development. During Jokowi’s tenure, the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway was completed, and a new capital city project was pushed forward to ensure long-term national development. Prabowo plans to provide free nutritional meals for primary and secondary school students, a flagship proposal of his campaign, although it may increase the government’s financial burden. In terms of foreign policy, Indonesia follows a zero enemy principle, stressing that it does not take sides with any country and advocates maintaining neutrality in international disputes. It is expected that Prabowo will continue this stance. As for relations with China, the new government is expected to deepen cooperation, continuing from the previous administration. For Taiwan, since the promotion of the New Southbound Policy, Indonesia has become an important source for international students and migrant workers in Taiwan, and understanding and respecting Indonesian culture will help promote Taiwan-Indonesia cooperation. Future collaboration could strengthen areas such as supply chain resilience, green transformation, and digitalization.
【The Presentation of Dr. Ke-Li Teng (Adjunct Assistant Professor at the Institute of Strategic Studies, National Defense University)】
Next, Dr. Shangmao Chen (Professor, Department of Public Affairs, Fo Guang University), presented on key issues and outlook for Thailand's Paetongtarn Government in 2024. Thailand’s economic development is closely tied to its political situation, especially in the critical moment of post-pandemic recovery. In recent years, Thailand’s political landscape has seen a clash between reformists and conservatives, leading to instability. The current political environment is divided into three major factions: the reformist People’s Party (formerly the Move Forward Party), the center-left Pheu Thai Party (the ruling party), the center-right Bhumjaithai Party and military-backed parties. In early August 2024, a political crisis arose in Thailand, including the dissolution of the Future Forward Party by the Constitutional Court and the removal of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin by the same court. After negotiations, the new Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was elected with the support of the National Assembly on August 16, 2024, marking the return of the Thaksin family to the political scene. The new government, which took office in early September, is expected to continue the policies of former Prime Minister Srettha, such as the 10,000-baht digital wallet scheme, the land bridge project, and active economic diplomacy. However, the new government faces internal pressures from constitutional amendments and reforms, as well as external challenges from changes in international political dynamics, which may affect its stability. Furthermore, Paetongtharn’s father, Thaksin Shinawatra, serves as both an asset and a potential burden, presenting a challenge to the new government. In terms of foreign policy, Thailand seeks to avoid picking sides in the US-China competition and aims to exert influence in ASEAN, particularly concerning the Myanmar issue.
【The Presentation of Dr. Shangmao Chen (Professor, Department of Public Affairs, Fo Guang University)】
Finally, Sean Lee (Research Analyst of of the Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center, CIER), presented on Taiwan-Indonesia and Taiwan-Thailand relations and economic cooperation outlook. Due to global supply chain shifts, Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia and Thailand have become major locations for Taiwanese businesses relocating their production lines. Indonesia, the largest economy in ASEAN, aims to become one of the top five global economies by 2045. President Prabowo Subianto aims to increase the economic growth rate to over 8% within the next 2 to 3 years. Indonesia’s economic policy will continue the downstream industrialization approach, gradually developing downstream industries. To date, export bans have been implemented for nickel and bauxite. Indonesia also plans to leverage its nickel resources to develop electric vehicle (EV) batteries and enter the global EV supply chain. Thailand, the second-largest economy in ASEAN, has seen slower economic growth than other ASEAN countries in recent years. Revitalizing the economy is a key issue for the Thai government. The electric vehicle industry is a focus for Thailand, which is the world’s 10th-largest car producer and has been actively transitioning towards EVs with an ambitious 30@30 goal: by 2030, 30% of all car production should be zero-emission vehicles. Thailand also plans to develop high-end electronics industries like chips and AI, using printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturing and assembly as a foundation. Thailand is already the largest PCB production center in ASEAN and the fourth-largest PCB cluster for Taiwanese businesses abroad. In terms of cooperation with Taiwan, future opportunities lie in enhancing supply chain resilience, industrial collaboration, tourism, education, talent cultivation, and green and digital transformation.
【The Presentation of Sean Lee (Research Analyst of the Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center, CIER)】
During the panel discussion session, CIER invited the three speakers and two industry representatives to engage in exchanges with the moderator and online audience regarding Taiwan’s relations with Indonesia and Thailand and the business opportunities in these countries. The online discussion was lively, with many questions from the audience. Two key industry representatives shared their insights. Chung Kuo-Sung (CEO of jpp-KY), discussed practical experiences in Thailand. Due to the Out of China trend, many Chinese companies have entered the Thai market, creating intense competition for Taiwanese businesses, particularly in the electric vehicle sector. The Thai government has started to consider countermeasures, but specific policies are still unclear. He advised Taiwanese businesses looking to invest in Thailand to adopt high levels of automation and avoid labor dependency, as automation is the market trend. Language barriers, labor quality, and the shortage of skilled professionals are also important factors to consider when investing in Thailand.
Next, Liu Chin-Cheng (Senior Manager, Sinotech Engineering Consultants Co., Ltd.) shared his company’s experience in Indonesia, mainly participating in public works projects funded by the World Bank (WB), Asian Development Bank (ADB), and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). Indonesia has a significant demand for infrastructure, and its need for green energy is growing. Coal-fired power plants, under international carbon reduction requirements, are gradually being phased out. Indonesia is also actively promoting transportation infrastructure such as subways and railways and offers many opportunities for Taiwanese businesses in areas like housing, waste management, sewage treatment, and water supply.
【Assistant Director General Sung Shen-Wu, Director Tzun-Tzu Hsu, speakers and panelists】
The New Leadership in Indonesia and Thailand: Policy Impacts on Taiwan conference successfully concluded. CIER remains committed to serving as an important platform for government, industry, and academia on Southeast Asian issues, continuously organizing the Southeast Asia Economic and Trade Promotion Platform Meetings to facilitate mutual exchange and understanding of Southeast Asian issues within Taiwan’s knowledge community.
講者簡報：
活動議程：
Comentários