Patty Wu, Research Associate
Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center, CIER
Abstract
In 2024, Laos assumed the ASEAN Chairmanship under the theme Enhancing Connectivity and Resilience, marking its third time holding this position. The report examines the key aspects of Laos’s chairmanship and evaluates potential developments amid complex regional challenges.
A central issue is the ongoing Myanmar crisis, where Laos made an early breakthrough by facilitating Myanmar’s participation in an ASEAN meeting with a non-political representative, the first such engagement since the 2021 military coup. As Myanmar’s neighbor, Laos is expected to adopt a more moderate stance compared to previous chair nations, though the effectiveness of its efforts to implement the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus remains uncertain. Another challenge arises from the South China Sea disputes, where Laos’s close ties with China and its landlocked status present unique challenges in managing regional tensions. Despite this, some analysts argue that Laos’s relationship with China may facilitate progress in the ongoing negotiations on the Code of Conduct (COC). Additionally, Laos has prioritized regional integration through strengthening ASEAN connectivity and resilience, with a particular focus on digital transformation, sustainable development, and the implementation of the ASEAN Community Vision 2045.
A critical concern for Laos is maintaining ASEAN centrality amidst the intensifying US-China rivalry while advancing the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP). The report also highlights Laos’s significant debt to China, which stands at 122% of GDP, and its limited diplomatic capacity, factors that could constrain its effectiveness as ASEAN Chair. However, the ASEAN Troika mechanism, which involves the collaboration of past, present, and future chair countries, is identified as a key resource to mitigate these constraints and enhance Laos’s leadership potential.
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